Trump Will Soon Destroy the GOP: Every Road Ahead Leads to Same Place
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One of two things is going to happen. Either Trump is going to win the GOP primary (even as trial dates are likely set on felony charges), or Trump will lose the GOP primary. In either case, the GOP will be destroyed, and the country will suffer a significant blow, as well.
I. THE PRIMARY
A significant number of establishment Republicans and the Republicans up for election in 2024 believe that Trump, along with GOP voters, now realize that three straight losses (The House cannot be seen as a win), including the last loss, even in a tough economy, is enough of a message to all that Trump will do the “run for president” thing to raise money, claim persecution, all that, and then dive out of the race for a made-up reason before GOP voters get around to voting. Trump won’t have to take the chance of losing anything again.
They are counting on Trump “getting a message” that he’s bad for the Republican party. But that assumes facts not in evidence, that Trump cares about the Republican party. They are counting on Republican voters to see that Trump-MAGA loses despite the fact that Republican voters just burned through primaries in which they knew they were voting for the candidate more likely to lose (Walker, Oz, Vance, Masters), Vance won, and Walker might, and yet “real candidates” could have all had a shot at winning or at least coming much closer.
The “establishment,” (Thiel, Murdoch, Mercers, McConnell, Cornyn, Thune) acts as though everyone will want to do what is in the party’s best interests with no evidence whatsoever that it will happen or even can happen. The establishment would like to get in a smoke-filled room and limit the number of candidates to two to three, and not 12, to prevent Trump from marching to victory with a small plurality in the first six states, as happened in 2016 without any evidence that the establishment is strong enough to control anything. Is Mitch McConnell going to tell eight potential candidates, “You can’t run,” and have them care what McConnell thinks?
Additionally, all candidates must support Trump against any criminal charges that arise, even if they oppose Trump in the primary. They have spent five years telling their voters that every accusation against Trump is a “witch hunt,” they can’t suddenly do a U-turn without appearing to support the Democrats. All of the Democrats.
Hello, Sanctimonious
And yet, experienced political pros believe one candidate can beat Trump because that candidate “is” Trump without the baggage, with better manners, and seventy additional IQ points. (DeSantis only plays a dim bulb on television. Appearing sophisticated and using big words is political death in the GOP).
Trump knows it, too - Trump has already bestowed DeSantis with his patented branding, “Ron DeSanctimonious.” Additionally, Trump has some dirt on DeSantis (Real or made-up) that Trump tried to dump in a Rolling Stone article. Rolling Stone refused to print the accusations. Lara Trump warned DeSantis about “messy and raw” primaries. Much more intimidation to come.
But DeSantis won Florida by 18 points despite the fact that Trump belittled him. DeSantis will be even more powerful as potential indictments simmer sit alongside DeSantis’s ability to turn Florida into a MAGA state.
Coming out of the primaries, there are only two options, and neither requires a long analysis. Unfortunately, for them, both will destroy the GOP:
II. Trump Wins
It is at least 50-50 that Trump will win the nomination. Six months ago, I predicted he would dive out of the primary before the voting started, but that was before DOJ kicked it into high gear. Now he almost has to go through. He must be able to say that they’re prosecuting him to stop him from running for president. If he’s not running, why are they prosecuting him? Because he committed a crime?
Maybe DeSantis stays out, maybe only one or two “alternative” candidates (Chris Christie) run and Trump rolls right over them. Trump dominates the GOP and shapes it in his interests. He will war with McConnell while running for president as the Republican. He will likely war with the RNC about the money, sucking up every dollar. He will force every Republican who faces voters in 2024 to defend the absurd. Trump took Top-Secret SCI files on Iranian missiles and Chinese defense just as “his” and other presidents do the same thing. It’s a “storage issue.” This potential indictment will sit alongside possible strong collusion on January 6th, which scared the shit out of everyone in Congress, but those charges would have to be all “trumped up” as nothing. It was a protest. Serious people will have to assert this.
He will also lose the general election by a greater margin than last time, as is the pattern. It will ensure chaos as his supporters once again believe they’ve been cheated. It will bring a large number of Republican candidates down with him.
The GOP is effectively destroyed for another four to six years after his failed run.
III. TRUMP LOSES THE PRIMARY
Voters recognize the likelihood of all the above, and DeSantis runs. Voters realize that with DeSantis, they get “Trump” policy and fight without “Trump” baggage and embarrassment. Plus, maybe they’ll win.
The moment that Trump recognizes that DeSantis has the inside track to beat him, Trump will dive out of the race, claiming it is rigged. He will immediately proceed to destroy DeSantis and the GOP. He will run as an independent with one of the MAGA “popular girls.” He will ensure that the Republican (DeSantis) loses, indeed - it will be the reason Trump stays in the race, to keep his victor out of the White House. His other goal? Destroy everything left behind. Punish the GOP for denying him what was his. It will be ugly and torrid.
And it won’t end with the 2024 general election. It will continue until he either owns the Republican party again or it’s left as a heaping pile of smoking sh*t.
CONCLUSION
The Republican party can’t win. Indeed, it will be diving toward the bottom of a very troubled ocean or going up in flames that get increasingly hot and windblown.
It will be lucky to stay intact as a going concern… because Trump will still have 25-40% of Republican voters, minimum.
Lindsey Graham said they would be destroyed and deserve it. With enough Republican protection, Trump made it this far. But accountability is coming, and the American public has shown that a majority doesn’t want to see him anywhere near power again.
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