Prudently Prepare for the Worst
Cynicism, fear, earnestness, and bravery are entirely appropriate.
Welcome to the Sunday “Deep Dive,” though this week we’re jumping into dangerously shallow water, and it’s impossible to see beneath the surface, so there’s not much point in “diving” into that which can’t be known. In just over 48 hours, the U.S. will hold its 2022 midterms, and anyone who says that he or she knows what is about to happen is lying.
We are in new territory, a post-2020 world. There is only one thing we can say with absolute certainty. An insurmountable red wave that leaves every Republican reelected and ushers in some fresh MAGA faces will be received warmly by Republicans, the election will be entirely fair, and the country will move on peacefully… from the election to a more autocratic future. (The impending possible indictments are a different topic for a different Sunday, almost surely next Sunday).
But we can break down what we know in three short sections:
As always, this service remains free, though any help on Venmo to @Jason-Miciak is always appreciated. Onward, in preparing ourselves emotionally, as much as anything.
Back when we had hope. It’s still okay to have hope. But we must face reality.
ONE: Convergence
All of a sudden, it appears that every race is tightening, more often than not, to the Republicans’ advantage. Races that shouldn’t even be close are turning heads and becoming money sieves. Democratic Senator Patty Murray of Washington is just five points ahead of her challenger, Tiffany Smiley. Meanwhile, Chuck Grassley of Iowa is polling only three percentage points ahead of his Democratic challenger, retired Admiral Mike Franken. Under the 2022 paradigm, up until October, this wasn’t supposed to happen. Now there are close races everywhere.
We know that early voting has surged in some key states. That is club-techno music to a Democrat’s ears. When more people vote, more Democrats win. Trump didn’t start trashing vote-by-mail in 2020 out of some principle, other than maybe early voting doesn’t fit with his “television show” view of the world. No, It is always bad for Republicans if more people vote. Always. More people are voting early. That is a good sign.
But, at the same time.
Across the country, Republicans, on the whole, are surging. Some of this is real. FiveThirtyEight once said that Democrats had a 70% chance to hold the Senate. Now, it is a tossup, with Democrats having a 48% chance. Some of it is not real. Republicans have an old trick whereby they commission a bunch of conservative-friendly polls just before the election to give the appearance of “winning.”
Of the Murray-Smiley race, Crosscut.com says:
Recent polls have shown the race between Murray and Smiley growing tighter. Many of those recent polls have come from right-leaning pollsters, according to Stuart Elway, who conducts the Crosscut/Elway poll. Their addition has allowed, for example, the political website Real Clear Politics to move the race into its tossup category.
“The Republicans are flooding the zone here with their polls, and they may be creating this impression of this Republican wave breaking again that might not be there,” Elway said in an interview.
Oh. That’s nice. All these Republican polls creating the impression of a Republican wave breaking may not be there. It may be just that Republicans are now overconfident regarding their positions in races, and a loss against the expectation of victory will leave them with… rage, self-righteously indignant, sure that the Democrats continue to “steal what is “theirs!” As the fire burns, the actual numbers and their accuracy recede into near irrelevance in their minds.
In case I haven’t mentioned it, especially if you live in a state or district that is at all contested, please - on behalf of those of us represented by Senator Tommy Tuberville, please vote. Otherwise, we all look pretty stupid, given the level of seriousness of what we’re up against.
TWO: WE HAVE BEEN WARNED
The Republicans haven’t kept it a secret. Many of them will not accept the election outcome unless they win.
I know, I know, it sounds like second grade, but it’s not, it’s just the richest, most powerful government in history with a military that could literally send civilization reeling without even using nukes, and this is the kind of “seriousness” we now have from the MAGAs. (Well, and see Stephen Miller’s tweet, too). As Kari Lake said to Dana Bash:
Lake: “I’m going to win the election, and I will accept that result.”
Bash: “If you lose, will you accept that?”
Lake: “I’m going to win the election, and I will accept that result …
And I will make cookies free!
Not to be outdone, Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, leading his hard-charging Democratic challenger Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, by a mere two points, says that he just can’t agree to accept the results. When asked if he could accept the election results, Johnson said, “I sure hope I can, but I can’t predict what the Democrats might have planned.”
The two-term senator said that he and other Republicans are not trying to “gain partisan advantage” by contesting election results, but rather trying to “restore confidence” in the electoral process.
No, actually, that’s 100% ass-backward. When the state of Texas sues your shitty state because it can’t do “elections Texas-style” (Where Republicans always win), in front of the Supreme Court, your specific intention is to gain partisan advantage by draining respect for elections, as this is exactly what happened when Texas sued Pennsylvania in 2020.
Do not think for a second that Republicans aren’t aware of the fact that they have the militias and lone wolves on their side and enjoy the fact that there may be times Democrats are simply too afraid to really “push it.” The current dynamic is already fascist in nature.
Though I put the two most prominent examples up top, this is a much broader problem. The Washington Post analyzed 569 Republicans running across the country from state to federal office, and fully 51% refused to accept Biden’s victory (at least out loud). But again, Kari Lake is the one to really watch. She has been called the new “face” of MAGAism, which is a bit sexist because, while she is prettier than Ron DeSantis (Same could be said of a tire), DeSantis would wipe the floor with her as things stand now. But she is big enough, and if she loses and refuses to accept that loss… Arizona is almost MAGA-nut central headquarters USA.
But, to sum it up. As former National Security Director Mike Flynn once famously said of Iran, the MAGAs have put us “on notice.”
So we have MAGAs seeming to surge in the polls, assuming a red wave, many refusing to accept results and…
THREE: DISCONTENT
This is a quote from Ben Shapiro from just two days ago.
“I will say one thing that’s gonna be very dangerous for the country. There’s a widespread perception that Republicans are gonna kick ass in the House and that they’re likely to take the Senate at this point.
“If suddenly this turns into wipe out in favor of Democrats — If you’re worried about election denial and you’re worried about people not trusting the results of elections if people go to bed on Tuesday night thinking the Republicans have won, and by Wednesday morning Democrats have picked up a bunch of seats, and the red wave has founded on the rocks, there’s gonna be a lot of discontent in this country.
“And it’s going to be been driven by a lot of the media coverage of what’s going on so far, as well as a lot of uncertainty about how votes are even tabulated in states like Pennsylvania, which takes like days and days and days to tabulate the votes in unprofessional manner.
How does one even respond? “Discontent.”
First, one responds by saying, “Fck you, Ben, Republicans in Pennsylvania’s legislature passed a law forbidding election workers from opening mail-in ballots before election day, and Democrats begged them through this very week to allow the process to start earlier!” They want that “discontent” to fester!
Indeed, it is almost starting to feel as though they need that “discontent” i in the air. It’s part of their ethos.
One might take comfort in the fact that there won’t be 50,000 of Trump’s most hardcore supporters organizing an attack on the Capitol if the election doesn’t go their way. But the decentralization could make things even worse. Threats to judges and county clerks, abject refusal to recognize the election as legitimate, ignoring judicial orders, and a “fight me for it” attitude spread from sea to shining sea, but especially in those states where the races are closest and for the biggest stakes, think Governor of Arizona, or the Senate races in Georgia and Pennsylvania.
What is “discontent,” Ben? Is it Oklahoma City, except this time, it is next to the Maricopa County Clerk’s office? Is it a bullet through a judge’s head? What is discontent? We cannot know, Ben doesn’t know, we don’t know their limits, and we don’t know the results. As said above, if a red wave occurs, peace will be felt throughout the land… until indictments start coming down.
We can know one thing. There is no indication anywhere that the MAGA movement feels more “constrained” due to January 6th, and there’s no evidence that the movement has become less radical. It is the opposite. One could hear it in Shapiro’s voice. (Even just reading it) They are owed. If that wave doesn’t appear, if Democrats hold the Senate or even gain a seat, and if those damn mail-in ballots make a difference again… the races are so close it will again take days to determine some races, control of the Senate could linger for days. The MAGAs response is limited only by what they perceive as limits, and 40% believe violence can be a legitimate political tool.
I’m also bothered by the fact that beneath all of this, one feels a certain MAGA “contempt” for voting generally. Because “everyone gets to vote,” it makes everyone equal, and there are some on the Right who don’t like that. As we leave, prudently preparing ourselves for the worst, this haunts me:
Here, we’re worried about voting, and a lot of them simply want to overwhelm the system with violence and begin the post-Constitution, fascist-America epoch.
CONCLUSION
Vote. Text five friends and tell them to vote. Piss off the MAGAs, and vote. And then prudently prepare yourself emotionally. This isn’t the America we grew up in. Be safe. But be brave, too. We can’t just “give it to them.” When one combines safety with bravery, it roughly equates to prudence and earnestness. Take walks. Don’t isolate. Pray. Meditate. Selfcare is vital. Think about what you can contribute because you can do a lot.
It could become very difficult if there is “discontent.” And that’s before the indictments come down…
We’ll look at that situation next Sunday. I hope I’m earning free subscriptions, and any help on Venmo to @Jason-Miciak is always very much appreciated as a single dad.
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