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Predictions are difficult, obviously, but it is a useful exercise in that it focuses the mind on what to look for in the coming year, whether predicted accurately or not. One can review my predictions from last year, and they were kind of freaky accurate. I did miss on Roe v. Wade, Dodds, which changed the year. (And lives).
Regardless, many of the predictions were accurate because they were telegraphed so clearly going in, and one simply had to be patient and watch it play out. I hope this is as useful as last year’s, which was the most read issue.
Quite obviously, one question dominates politics and the country’s future. It will put at issue the rule of law and be a stress test of democracy… and I am almost paralyzed in considering the question of whether Trump will be charged with a major felony this year. A part of me says, “Of course,” and that part of me looks at people saying that for 40 years. But I do think it’s different this time.
Literally, anyone else would already be arrested by now, probably already been tried. But there is danger in doing something that’s never been done before, criminally charging an ex-president. When I caution people about the danger and get the angry (really angry) response that this must “obviously” be done, I have no counter-argument. I believe it must be done. But the really angry folks don’t realize that it obviously must be done in a certain way, and that’s where my fears kick in.
Trump Will Be Indicted for Illegally Possessing Classified Files And He Will Be Indicted in Georgia. But he Will NOT Be Indicted for Major Felonies Associated with January 6th
I hate the above title. It’s kind of like I’m splitting the baby, isn’t it? The problem is that prosecutors are often forced to do the same thing.
Way back in April of 2022, just weeks after reading that DOJ impaneled a grand jury to look into files kept at Mar-a-Lago, and before the FBI search, I wrote in Political Flare that the files in Mar-a-Lago would be the most dangerous case Trump will face. He could be indicted right now on simple possession of Top Secret material. But it feels to me like the FBI wants something bigger to justify the indictment. The FBI would likely be far more comfortable if they could prove the “nefarious purposes,” for which Trump kept the files, nefarious purposes that have been referenced in reports
Certainly, it is very difficult to imagine a non-nefarious purpose for having Top Secret SCI files on Iranian missiles and Chinese defense doctrines. Holding those files screams that he thought there might be a market for such information. The fact that the materials were so clearly not his distinguishes it from Trump’s ridiculous assertion that the “Clinton Socks Case” frees Trump to utilize his discretion in what’s his versus the Presidential Records Act. One can read here why Trump is as far “off” in his thinking as usual.
The fact that it is plainly obvious to a casual observer that Trump would only hold such files for malevolent purposes doesn’t mean there is admissible evidence as to the bad ends he had planned. (It is also true that Trump may have been holding far more dangerous files, the type that cannot even be named because the name would give away top-secret material. A file entitled; “Locations of UFO Crashes in the United States from 2000 to 2020” is a file that will not be entered into evidence, and there are plenty of files that fit that same principle, though less silly.)
The FBI will desperately want to prove, with overwhelming evidence, that Trump held those files to sell or to hold as leverage against other possible problems… “If you go forward, I will release… “ The strength of the FBI’s proof in those nefarious purposes will be determinative (In my mind) as to whether Trump is charged. I suspect they have some evidence already, or they would not have sought the search warrant. Actually, I think they have a lot of evidence, and that’s why I believe he’ll be charged.
The other factor in favor of indicting Trump over the files is the near embarrassing number of attempts that the National Archives made to get these files, cooperating with Trump. Lined up altogether, it will just look terrible, and it will buttress the evidence that Trump held the files for some disturbing reason.
It is just such a clean case. Very serious, but very clean, easy to understand, easy to present. The witness list will include four to five former White House lawyers saying: “I told him to turn them back over… I told him it was illegal…”
Georgia
The fcker is on TAPE telling Georgia’s Sec. of State to find 11,700 votes, “I only need 11,700 votes, give me a break.”
Georgia has a… “special” relationship with Trump in that Trump has precious few friends currently in power, and he has a lot of people that would rather see him gone. Additionally, Fanni Willis seems particularly disinterested in the fact that Trump is a former president and very much interested in why Trump was calling into Georgia’s Secretary of State demanding that Raffensperger simply declare Trump the victor.
There is a process in Georgia whereby a “special grand jury” was convened to do the investigation and make recommendations which will be reviewed by the judges in that district to determine if the investigation is complete. That process is wrapping up. Suppose the recommendation is that the investigation is done. In that case, the files go to Willis, who then impanels a regular grand jury and indicts Trump in two days based on all that was found in the investigation.
If Willis believes she has all the corners covered, she will indict Trump. And that’s a problem for Trump because a future Republican president cannot pardon him. That leaves Trump and his… special relationship with Georgia, whose governor cannot pardon Trump (One of three states). It must be done by the Parole Board. Good luck, ole boy.
January 6th
I could spend hours writing out my doubts regarding January 6th, but ultimately, it gets down to an Al Capone situation. January 6th is a mess. There are so many people in on the conspiracy, from electors to the Secret Service, to people at DOJ, possibly the Pentagon, Trump’s A-Team in war rooms at the Willard Hotel, proud boys… It. Is. A. mess and a prosecutor’s nightmare. There is no guide on how to handle a case like January 6th.
But if the entire point is to finally hold Donald Trump accountable for something, Smith might go the Al Capone route (Put in federal prison on tax fraud and not murder) and indict Trump in the “cleaner” case, those files in Florida. Perhaps Smith might file a civil case regarding January 6th seeking a judicial order finding that Trump committed some kind of insurrection against the federal government and should be declared ineligible to run again.
Even if there is overwhelming evidence that Trump was up to his neck in a conspiracy on January 6th, as he likely was, the fact that it might take a two-month-long trial versus a one-week trial in Florida may be determinative. In order for any conviction to retain its legitimacy, it should be simple enough for the average person to follow, even without watching every minute.
Perhaps the FBI has some evidence they’ve kept secret that greatly simplifies the January 6th case. Even one phone call to the right person could do it. But I think Jack Smith will try to avoid the complexity that makes it so hard to try the case and get a verdict and set the January 6th case aside - for now, maybe for good - and prosecute Trump and his nefarious actions down in Florida, seeking a conviction, and a sentence, all before the 2024 election.
Mark Meadows will not be so lucky. He WILL be charged for January 6th crimes.
There is one other very important consideration. It’s possible that the Florida files case truly is the more serious case. What if there is evidence that Trump already sold some files to Putin or MBS? One could make the argument that it’s a more serious crime than January 6th.
The 2024 election is playing a role in all this. Garland waited SO long to do anything that we’re now bumping up against being able to hold a trial before November 2024. Suppose they fail to complete the trial by January 3rd, 2024. In that case, it’s possible that a Republican president (Perhaps even Trump) will stop the trial dead in its tracks, ordering the DOJ to dismiss their charge.
Even if the Republican pardons Trump, there is value in having a guilty verdict and he still has his relationship with Georgia to deal with.
That is plenty for Trump and his status as a free citizen. As for New York and IRS criminal liability, I have doubts that those charges could even be brought in 2023. I must also confess I know less about those cases. Silly to waste time on stuff where I have little insight. But they are certainly lingering in the background compared to the ones listed above.
Me, trying to figure out what’s happening in 2023
Because the Trump matter was so long - and will so dominate the news - the rest are done in bullet points before you lose all interest in 2023.
Republican House
As I predicted last year, the Republicans took the House with a bare majority making it hard to function as a normal caucus versus a minority. Kevin McCarthy will be the speaker, a deal will be worked out. The Republicans WILL investigate the Democrats because that is now the Republican platform, their raison d’etre, and some embarrassing stuff will fall out, especially as it concerns Twitter/Social media and that never to be damned enough Hunter Laptop. But, as always, the Republicans will overreach in trying to pin anything on Biden, and the public will turn on Jim Jordan and their ceaseless investigations, setting them up to lose the House again in 2024.
Republican Primary
Trump is running because he needs to run. He has learned that there is money to be made in politics (People send you free money!), and he cannot afford to get out. He also needs to be in the race in order to scream, “They cannot beat me, and so they’re prosecuting me.” But is he really running? No, not really. He has defeated himself with all the anti-Semitism and “terminating the Constitution stuff.” Plus, MAGAs get all the “America First” they could ever want from Ron DeSantis. Unlike Trump, DeSantis has cute little kids and an utterly adorable wife whom he loves (though a very dangerous one, she’s his secret weapon who runs everything). There is very little chance of scandal (Not in Florida) and no possible felonies or insurrections hanging over him.
That’s all fine, except DeSantis is more dangerous in the Oval Office than Trump. But that’s a whole ‘nuther column.
Your Republican GOP nominee (at least leading on Dec. 31st) … And Ron.
Democratic Primary?
I don’t think that Biden has firmly made up his mind yet. He says that he intends to run. Yes, okay - that’s what you should say right up until it’s unfair to anyone else if you decide to bow out. He has not announced his candidacy, nor has he put together a team/fundraising operation. I cannot envision Biden running again, and I’m well aware of the hate mail I get when I say anything alluding to it. I can see Biden running again if it looks as though Trump will be the nominee (doubtful). Age won’t matter, and Biden can say that he kicked Trump’s ass once and he’ll do it again. He will be right. But Biden against any of the others….
Newsom would be the favorite coming out of the gate but watch for Pritzker of Illinois, Whitmer of Michigan (An intellectual, confident, Gen X woman with a wonderful smile versus the punk Ron DeSantis is almost too perfect), Secretary Pete Buttigieg will be president someday - don’t think it’s this time, and I’d love to say Kamala Harris, but for some reason (I believe her staff bears most of the blame) Harris has just failed to get any serious traction. She was known to be a fighter. That is what we loved about her. She hasn’t been fighting much for reasons we can’t know.
Ukraine
Assuming the Ukrainians can get through the winter, they will have pushed the Russian army out by summer. (I got this one almost perfectly accurate last year). The danger remains that Russia will launch missiles into the cities even after being removed from Ukraine. If the Russians continue to do so, at that point, it’s likely that NATO and the West will give Ukraine the long-range missiles they’ve wanted to take the war into Russia.
Putin might sue for peace with one tiny element in his favor, something he can try to sell as a win to his citizens.
China
Again on the rise. It is increasingly looking like the 21st Century will be the Chinese century in the way the 20th Century was American. The challenge is less with China’s military (which is now substantial) and more with its technology. Whereas the Republicans want the power to impose GOP will on others and avoid being “woke” right now and freeze the United States in some Leave it to Beaver dream, the dictatorship that is Chinese Communism is focused on the future, investing money in technology that could push them ahead of the United States in critical areas. In a world so wired that your refrigerator will eventually order your groceries, technology will increasingly dictate which nation can do what.
In the coming decades, the net will look increasingly like electricity. It will be everywhere and nowhere at the same time. When the electricity goes out, we certainly notice, but on a normal day, who thinks about electricity? No one. And the interconnected web will be the same way. Chinese investments in their own STEM education system, their space program, physics, A.I., and military (tech), puts China in a position to continue its controlling nature and problematic priorities. Tiktok was just the beginning.
They will not invade Taiwan. Not this year.
Terrorism
Last year I predicted an “Oklahoma City” type of event. Thankfully, I was wrong. For 2023, I am predicting an Oklahoma City-type event by the militias forming somewhat underground. The attack will be done by former military and other dangerous individuals who continue to be angry that Trump has been rendered impotent. (Sorry)
Too few people know, but there was already an organized attack of four different electrical substations in the state of Washington on Christmas, four - on the same day. That’s not a coincidence.
Think of the dynamic in the U.S. as a pressure cooker or a volcano. At some point, some of the anger is going to be released (again), and one can hope that it is limited to an isolated incident. The comparison to Oklahoma City and the mention of electrical substations is to focus the mind on “soft targets,” because it feels like we’re being probed. From North Carolina to California and Washington, there is something up…
Natural Disasters
Last year I predicted that we’d have a busy hurricane year with at least two devastating hurricanes. Instead, it was rather calm until parts of Florida’s west coast were utterly destroyed, like Hiroshima.
The true ocean beach on the Gulf is 20 minutes from my house. When my daughter and I go at 7:30 a.m. in July, the outside temperature is already 82, and the water temperature is 87-88. It is so warm it’s almost disconcerting. That huge bathtub is a hurricane incubator, and every prediction for every year for the foreseeable future will involve at least one Cat IV or V hurricane hitting the mainland. It’s only a matter of time until it’s our turn (though we’re on a bluff above the bay).
Wildfires will not be as bad this year because California has received far more rainfall and snow pack this year. It is not tinder dry.
Sports
Someone is eventually going to die in a UFC ring. It’s long overdue. In one way, it’s amazing that there is a “sport” that would be considered a felony if it happened 3 feet out of the octagon.
Name/Image/Likeness will continue to change the landscape of college sports as the major conferences push their way to 3 super conferences, which will not happen this year, but the pieces will align.
2023 - Much Ado - and You
Some of us desperately need a vastly better year as we’re plenty ready to leave 2022 in smothering ruins. I hope that you find a little more peace, a little more love, less stress, less screen time (seriously), and more time with dogs. I am still trying to recruit someone who can take one column a week, someone better than me. It shouldn’t be too hard. And then, we can finally go with the paid newsletter versus the free one. Until then, year-end donations are all I can ask, and they’re appreciation. Venmo (6433) and
Ideally, we can all meditate to waves.
Just signed up for subscription. Your writing speaks to my heart. What a vision you have. So much like my own. Except you will live to see it happen; me, probably not. Go get 'em, Tiger!
Why did I have to look up "UFC"? Kindly use full names the first time used. A journalistic practice that helps evey reader understand what's being discussed. Thank you for co-operating.