The Democrats have secured at least a 50-50, a majority for Biden’s last two years. Even with a GOP House, there will be 200-300 new federal judges appointed that would not have been appointed had McConnell been made Majority Leader and a Democratic Senate will make a difference going into the 2024 election.
Meanwhile, the GOP looks like it will take the majority of the House though it will come down to two to five votes, and it’s still possible for the Democrats to eke out a victory of one or two.
With both parties split 50-50 among themselves. (or close enough) A current president who is not a “given” as the next nominee. And now Trump, is not a given as the next GOP nominee.
House investigations surely loom over Hunter Biden’s laptop (Which the FBI has already investigated thoroughly, and some anonymous FBI agents believe there is enough to bring charges.) Then there are the big ones. The House will inevitably impeach Joe Biden and figure out the crime later. DOJ “may” (it is not a given) indict Trump on both the obstruction of justice and espionage in the Florida case, as well as D.A. Fanni Willis ready to prosecute in Atlanta. (Though she now has the right to subpoena Lindsey Graham per the SCOTUS and will wait until she’s completed that all-important interview.)
There are a lot of moving parts. Each will require maturity, experience, putting the country first, and working within the party, even those one doesn’t like. Because, for now, we’re talking about the fact that each party has its own existential crisis as to where it goes from here.
I. REPUBLICANS
Where does one even begin? The “Republican party” (Which Eric Trump says doesn’t exist anymore, it’s the Trump Party) or at least some thought it was prior to the election:
Whether the GOP was ever to officially become 100% MAGA or not without regard to the elections was always up in the air. Trump just has so much baggage, and he exhausts people other than a solidly loyal 33% of the country. He faces an avalanche of possible charges and civil suits from now until the end of time. There is also the fact that Michael Cohen, who has been the most accurate Trump predictor of them all, says that Trump won’t run again for fear of losing.
Yeah, except he has a much bigger possible loss in court. Cohen might not have factored the possibility in when he made the in November of 2021, long before Merrick Garland was sufficiently embarrassed by the House Select Committee to get his investigations going.
So Trump now has a reason to announce and do it as soon as possible, indeed, TUESDAY! He likely would’ve done it two weeks ago, but that was forbidden. The money behind the GOP and top GOP officials begged-told Trump to put the announcement off until after the midterms. He could’ve turned the midterms into a referendum on him rather than Biden, who was the one with the problems, or so they believed.
So Trump is going to announce on Tuesday, but he was always going to “announce.” Lots of people announce for president, collect cash and free press, then pull out before Iowa. It is more likely he will go through to the primaries and election now. He needs cover from criminal investigations.
Stand-up, Ron DeSantis!
Ron DeSantis has all the MAGA, none of the baggage, and at age 44, he can sort of appeal to younger voters. He is clearly very popular with the MAGA section of the Republican party. If you look at what Trump wanted with the United States government, loyalty first, second, and last, DeSantis has it in Florida, where he essentially controls the legislature and the Florida Supreme Court. Of course, his “stunts” regarding migrants from Texas (who weren’t even here illegally. They were awaiting asylum hearings in camps, which is why they were always referred to as “asylum seekers.”), and the “Don’t Say Gay Law,” which was a trap of the type that the Left always falls for. Name a time when K-3 addresses heterosexuality, never mind LGBTQ stuff. Never. But we fell for it even though we had bigger fish to fry. DeSantis is very good at this.
No one knows whether DeSantis would win a head-to-head battle with Trump if held now. What is clear is that the typical MAGA voter wants the two to get along now and down the line. No problem? It is a problem with Trump, who resents DeSantis (“DeSanctimonious”) (Roger Stone even started a rumor to hurt DeSantis by alleging DeSantis was having an affair with Emeral Robinson, which is clearly a lie. DeSantis loves his wife, who is one of the few who seems to get along with him as a teammate in the office.
Despite Trump’s inflammatory remarks, DeSantis has stayed above it.
DeSantis is going to keep all his options open because he doesn’t know Trump’s future any more than Trump knows. DeSantis has the talent to do it. He plays ordinary doofus pretty well, but he’s brilliant and has built a machine in Florida.
And that leaves Mitch McConnell, currently the Republican in Washington, with the most actual power. McConnell is the embodiment of what President Biden excepted from the MAGA-Republicans and the real Republican. One can ask Liz Cheney about Biden’s “optimism,” but Biden has always taken pride in getting along with the other side.
One would have thought that the “GOP-Republican” wing was gone. Eric Trump certainly thinks it’s gone. But then that pesky election came along, and what it means going forward to 2024 is tough to discern, certainly tougher inside the parties than out. We know what they generally have to do.
Voters were rightly concerned about inflation, the economy, taxes, and crime. While Biden has bills out fighting all those, the public perception was that he had done nothing. Much more importantly, women and young voters came out in droves almost as a protest vote against Dobbs. The “actual case” in Dobbs was far less extreme than the ultimate SCOTUS opinion, which ripped apart any sort of right, even exceptions (as mandatory to every state). Many women, including many rather conservative women, were furious, contemplating medical tests for ectopic pregnancies, miscarriages, and pregnancies that will not allow a baby to live more than a minute outside the womb, and yet the mother is threatened by the pregnancy. Even teen girls are worried about texts regarding Plan B, abortifacients, and travel plans.
The mid-term voters also wanted stable democracy, and stable democracy means you don’t go to war when you lose. If you lose a close election, you may file a lawsuit, but once those are done, you don’t scream, “Rigged!” Voters saw it in most Republicans, mostly from the MAGA Right, the Kari Lake type.
Three very viable but very different directions, There is no obvious direction to take, and all have their upsides and downsides. All have their fighters. No one knows what is going to happen. If they say they do, they’re lying.
DEMOCRATS
The Democrats’ problem is conceptually far easier to see and yet perhaps more difficult to face and address.
I have been told by several liberal writers not to write about a possible Biden one-term presidency until he announces he is considering not running in 2024.
As far as I’m concerned, that’s rather ridiculous. Yes, it is true; Biden has never once wavered from his commitment to run again. But under no circumstances would Biden have ever announced his intention to run as a one-term president prior to the midterms. It would’ve made him an immediate lame duck. So we can toss all those statements about committing to a second term away. We would never have known until after the mid-terms. It is after the mid-terms. Now we will find out.
In terms of legislation and executive orders, Biden has had a more consequential term than Trump, Obama, and Bush, ever dreamed of having. And though Biden has lost some of his quickness and is prone to gaffes, 40 years of experience in government also adds a lot to the equation. But the real point is that if Biden runs, he will finish his second term closer to 90 than 80.
The other problem, and I’ll get in trouble for this, is that the Dems have no obvious successor. For reasons I will never understand, Kamala Harris went from a powerful Senator to a VP that has practically disappeared and doesn’t seem “Big” enough for the job. Pete Buttigieg is almost impossible not to like, even by conservatives, and acts like he can handle the job, but the experience thing and - yes, the gay thing may hurt him. The most logical place to look is at the prominent governors, Governor Newsom and Pritzker of Illinois.
Unless Biden runs again.
It always seemed that Biden ran out of a sense of duty as the only guy in 330 million people who could beat Trump. By the close results, it looks like he was right. There isn’t a lot more for him to do. We will see.
CONCLUSION
No one knows. The election went the opposite that people thought it would go (though high early turnout gave Democrats hope), and it makes sense that a lot of presumptions coming out of 2022 to 2024 will turn with them - maybe not the “opposite,” but there will be a lot more scratching of heads.
Before you say, “Yes, but it will mostly be on the Republican side. Do they keep following Trump?” Keep in mind that of all the groups of voters, the young voters shot up more. A millennial is not out of the possibility.
If Biden runs again, he will be the Democratic candidate. Obviously. I believe it’s about 50-50 that he’ll run again, and then I hide.
As for the Republicans, God only knows. There are just so many moving parts, some will work together and make alliances, and some will go out on their own. There are variables with respect to possible legal action, and there’s that sense of “Trump fatigue” felt by some on the Right. Oh, and the sense among some that, “I’ll follow Trump through hell,” there’s that, too.
A great place to live, Fairhope AL.
As per usual, an update, this will need to be more consistent with a backup writer before I charge, though Venmo donations of a dollar or 100 are always appreciated @Jason-Miciak. Thank you, and please do share around.
Newsom...is not much of a Dem. He blew a lot of his "campaign" money on fighting a prop that would have taxed the wealthy to pay for dealing with fires and the problems they cause. I don't know if it would have passed, but he didn't help it at all.