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This newsletter had to be set aside due to a sudden immense problem with Facebook advertising that near shut down another site. I set this aside until things stabilized… It took a while.
I am back. It will be a long time before I charge for the service. For those who read the below and learn (because I learned a lot in research), a few dollars to @Jason-Miciak, on Venmo, is appreciated.
And now, the problem:
SOME CERTAINTY ABOUT NOVEMBER 10TH, 2024, BUT A THICK FOG FORMS ALREADY
Sunday, November 10, 2024 will surely be brisk in many places throughout the country. There will be some ice in Michigan, Minnesota, and Maine. The snowbirds from Canada and northern states will be well-settled into the “room temperature winter” along the entire southern coast and Western desert. A slate of NFL games will dominate network television (Hopefully). My bedeviled Saints will either be slowly building back or… not. People will furiously pound their phones in search of affordable airfare to see mom over Thanksgiving. Many will begin their morning in church, perhaps praying over matters one never considered "God's work" until that very Sunday. Homework will sit, ignored, as teens stare at phones, procrastinating.
This is the United States. There is a lot we can predict about November 10th, 2024. This country’s structure is framed in large part by the 30-year mortgage, the financial bet that next year will look a lot like the last, a decade from now will shape up “close enough,” with reasonably assumed economic growth, community cohesion, and middle-class wealth. This is a country that evolves in phases, not always forward, but that long American arc has bent toward justice. Mutations happen. History is replete with sparks (and one fire) that require a fast stomp. And that’s it – that’s the United States, and it is expected to be the United States on that Sunday, November 10th, 2014, with the 1:00 p.m. kickoff. It should be.
And yet it won't.
What does it mean when, with respect to the next four years, one is far more confident in the strength and management of the NFL than the sustainability and reliability of the United States government? The nation’s democracy? Because I can envision kickoff, I can even envision Delta getting that fare down enough to see Mom. School will start on time Monday… the thirty-year mortgage bet would be safe in the social, American "culture," and community sense. But a week after the next presidential election, thick fog is forecasted already, a fog that is expected to creep ever lower… not lower in the ground, but lower on the calendar, to Nov. 20th and the 30th, on and on. Indeed, I don't know when the fog may lift in favor of clear roads and skies or even whether bright orange-red explosions will be the only thing penetrating that fog. It is all but impossible to tell. The country will roar down a highway outpacing the headlights.
Everyone reading this understands why, at one level. But to appreciate how thick the fog will be, one has to understand at the next level. The next level comes in three parts.
THE PROBLEM Part I.
Given that this fog envelopes us the week after a presidential election, it’s clearly elementary to point out that this country no longer trusts the integrity of the vote, correct?
Yes. Were that our only problem.
If the challenge was limited to building trust in how we count votes, it could be fixed in a year. The bigger part of the problem is that even though our elections are safer, more accurate, and harder to manipulate than ever before, there are many people on the Right that want to make the elections "mushier.” Indeed, they’ve already set about doing so.
There are still others who don't particularly care about the actual vote totals. They are preparing themselves, as "patriots," to stop the moderates and Democrats from destroying this country with its "woke" bullshit and bizarrely overstated economic troubles. They are doing this because they believe that not only did they "win" the 2020 election. but - perhaps more importantly, they “know” that they "deserved" to win.
Last, moving toward 2024, Democrats and moderates know that the Magas have already determined that they are "owed" a victory in 2024 and they will find a way to collect that debt.
Despite sixty-two court cases to the contrary, despite a Committee that presented data collected primarily from Republicans with televised findings to the American people, and even despite the fact that Trump administration officials themselves admitted they lost (!), still, as of September 22, 2022, a full 61% of Republicans believe that Biden won due to election fraud - "Rigged" for lack of a better word, Without regard to all that evidence, the number of Republicans that have acknowledged Trump legitimately lost has only dropped nine points from the 70% who believed it was rigged shortly after the election. All those facts, all that time, witnesses, and admissions by Trump officials, it all barely moved the needle. In the opinion of 61% of Republicans, Trump won. When a citizen's "opinion" regarding who won becomes impervious to real data, your country is quickly headed toward autocracy.
The numbers are meaningless to a group, armed to the teeth, that believe they are owed a victory. This is a group that already warred on the Capitol. And we know there are divisions in our civil services who take an oath to defend the Constitution but are now prepared to go around it if needed.
To get a sense of the certitude these people have regarding 2024, get familiar with the initials “AFPI,” now because it's the clearest sign that November 10th, 2024, will be a problem, no matter who "wins" or asserts power.
The America First Policy Institute (AFPI), is a new “think” tank stuffed with Trump administration alumni, Kellyanne Conway, Brooke Rollins, Mark Meadows, Larry Kudlow, you know the names, and they’re preparing to hit the ground running in 2024 and, by “hit the ground running,” we are talking about hundreds of executive orders to be signed the afternoon of January 20th, 2025, erasing Biden's gains, but even more importantly, avoiding the "mistakes" of their first term, "mistakes" like allowing people to serve who are not loyal to Trump first, then maybe the country. “America First” may be the most ironic, bizarrely named agenda in history. (And no, they’re not bothered by the anti-Semitic connotations, in case you are wondering, which you’re not).
Do not fool yourself into believing that all this rides on Trump winning. DeSantis, Rick Scott, Ted Cruz, and others all have the exact same priorities. They are determined to suck as much Western Liberalism out of this country’s guiding principles as possible and create an autocratic government that looks far more like Russia than Canada or the United States circa 2008. Speaking of Russia, part of the 2024 "confidence" may come from knowing help is on the way. We know it happened in 2016, according to our national intelligence apparatus. Who knows what could happen this time with less fear about "Russia, Russia, Russia" accusations?
Its not just Trump.
As just one example of the types of executive orders they have planned, a first-day order will make all federal employees “at-will,” this move would not only make it far easier to take an axe to two-thirds of the regulatory state but also ensure that everyone in every position has passed their "sufficiently loyal" test.
When a government is wholly comprised of loyalists, it doesn't lose elections. People often are surprised to learn that Russia holds elections and has a controlling "constitution"; they just don't mean anything. The Russian government is made up of loyalists that manipulate facts, and the AFPI envisions something similar here. It is called an autocracy, a dictatorship, or fascism. Anyone who thinks this depends upon Donald Trump needs to study Ron DeSantis's total unquestioned control of all three branches of Florida's government, including his new "election police force."
These are the people who represent one side in the "2024 election," and on November 10th, 2024, they will "know" they won, or - even if in doubt, "know" that they deserved to win because they are "owed." They also believe with religious fervor that they must take this nation back, or it will be destroyed.
THE PROBLEM Part II
The Super-Majority, Dangerous Six
We owe the fact that we still have a democracy in large part to the federal judiciary. But on this, we almost have to split the "judiciary," meaning the U.S. District Courts and Circuit Courts of Appeal as separate and apart from the U.S. Supreme Court. Yes, the United States Supreme Court kicked Texas's case to the curb in 2020, but that case was beyond a zoo-break and may yet get attorneys disbarred. The point was to get "a" case in front of the SCOTUS, immediately, and cases that involve a state suing another state enjoy original jurisdiction in front of the SCOTUS. So Texas sued Pennsylvania. But a state cannot sue another state claiming that the other stupid state didn't follow its own voting rules as determined by its courts. The SCOTUS dismissed the case on a 12(b)(6) Motion, meaning that the law doesn't even provide a basis for the SCOTUS to rule on Texas's behalf, even if Texas was right! Which they weren’t. It didn’t matter!
So, the SCOTUS didn’t “save” Biden that night.
But that doesn't mean that the SCOTUS, as currently constituted, isn't set up to roll out the red carpet to true U.S. autocracy with more efficiency than any MAGA hoped to believe.
In this very fall term, the SCOTUS is set to hear the case of Moore v. Harper from North Carolina, and it is no understatement to say that the decision in Moore could do “more” (Sorry) to change our form of government than any previous case since perhaps Marbury v. Madison. In Moore, the Far-Right super majority SCOTUS is set to hear a case based upon a far-right MAGA theory, the "Independent State Legislature Theory," or ISL, to the kool kidz on the "over-the-horizon" Right. These kids saw a permanent minority party forming and started looking for answers in their permanent majority conservative court. They brought out a discredited and mocked theory that is no longer the laughing matter it once was. It is set for this fall term. We know that at least four justices wanted to hear this whacked and dangerous case.
Without getting into the legal weeds of the original issue with gerrymandering in North Carolina, the Moore case will determine whether state legislatures have the final say on all elections in a state, including presidential elections, without any court review. This would mean that if the state of Arizona's legislature was absolutely convinced that Donald Trump won the state in 2020 (Perhaps by "show" committee investigations), and had the ISL been in place, it could have voted to send Trump electors to Washington DC, and it wouldn't matter that the Secretary of State certified the election for President Biden, No court could review their decision. Nor - obviously, would it matter if Biden received more votes. From Law and Crime:
Proponents also cite the Constitution’s electors clause (Article II, Section 1, Clause 2), which vests each state legislature with the authority to determine the manner of how a state chooses its presidential electors
The legislature could literally make a determination that the election really was won by Trump or even that Trump represents Arizona better (as evidenced by the Republican legislature), they could decide that the legislature will determine the electors, and send legislature-sanctioned electors for Trump. Even though Joe Biden was certified as having more votes, Trump would’ve “won” Arizona. There is a reason that 2020 was an "alternate electors" dry run.
In 2024, it may well be Constitutional law. If one reads the clause to the extreme, the state legislatures do not even need to hold a vote for president. The legislature itself can determine that it will vote on the electors. But again, without getting too far into the legal weeds, the SCOTUS is set - in what would almost surely be a 5-4 decision, either for or against (Kavanaugh, almost surely being the middle vote) granting state legislatures the type of power that they needed to "investigate" (in a legislative way) fraud, make their own determinations, wholly outside any court review. It is not hyperbole to say that it could be the end of true presidential elections.
Oh, and remember, in 2024, with this case possibly decided in favor of state legislatures, you will have red states that believe Trump won in 2020. Their opinion about who won overrides facts as found by independent bodies. They feel they are "owed" a win. They "know" in their Newsmax hearts that unless something is done to stop these woke, groomer, no-border, child-sacrificing Democrats, they'll lose their nation. Do you doubt that if the election came down to Arizona and Wisconsin that the legislatures would find a way to cast votes for MAGA, especially if it is "constitutional" (despite being "wrong.")?
Problem III. Democrats Have a Very Simple Problem
Lowers Point, Monterrey County, California
Part of the reason that the GOP has worked so hard to clamp down on voting rights, the reason that they discredit elections and push the 12th Amendment case; as said above, they are a minority party if the vote was as easy for everyone.
From 1992 through 2020, the Republican presidential candidate won the popular vote for president ONCE. (In 2004, Bush beat Kerry in the overall popular vote by three million votes, or close to what Hillary had over Trump). This is a stunning statistic, given that from 1992 to 2020, the country had a Republican president for 12 of those 28 years. one term short of half the time. The Republicans know that they are increasingly a regional, rural, minority party, one that is predominantly white, Christian, male, heterosexual, and native-born. In other words, they see themselves as the people entitled to run the country and yet are increasingly unable to in a democracy.
As if it needed to be worse, the fifty Democrats in the Senate represent 40 million more people than the 50 Republican members. Additionally, the 800,000 - mostly Democrats in Washington DC, don't have two Senators, but Wyoming's 750K voters do.
With the slimmest majority in the Senate (and 40 million extra people), along with a majority in the House and a president who won by almost eight million popular votes, the Democrats could have fixed nearly every problem above. It could have ended the filibuster as anti-democratic in nature. The Democrats could have passed legislation that would fix voting rights across the country and settled the issue regarding which electors the federal government would choose, forclosing the ISL theory. They could have also passed the social plans that Americans elected Joe Biden to do. They could have restored women’s autonomy nationwide.
The Democrats could pass legislation making the country more democratic in the face of a fascist threat.
But that is not the point to address with respect to November 2024's fog. If Joe Biden (Or another Democrat) is again elected by perhaps 10 million, and yet games played in Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, Wisconsin, and even Texas, keep the Democrats from obtaining the 272 Electoral College votes needed and either directly electing the America First candidate or sending the election to the House of Representatives, which is one vote per state (Still another anti-democratic position), where the America First candidate will win. Democrats will see another Republican sworn in despite overwhelming majority support and an honest win. Yet, "by law," the AFPI folks will claim a "Constitutional win."
Or Biden wins the E.C. again. But given that the MAGAs are "owed" the victory, they fight in every manner. They claim it's rigged. File court cases. Demand state legislatures step in, and - of course, fight, though earlier than last time, in an asymmetric civil war. (This is where the fog really begins to creep in.) Demanding their president.
The open question pertinent to the fog is; Just how long are strongly Democratic states willing to continue to be abused as the majority in a democracy and a future that looks only worse? Will California, Oregon, and Washington put up with being canceled out by Idaho, Wyoming, and Utah again? Will Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware, New York, Connecticut, Massachusets, and Vermont really just sit back, send more money to the federal government than they receive back, and be "ruled" by a minority of more rural, conservative, homogenous Americans?
At what point do the Democrats look to the future and see no future - at least one with their majority voice carrying the day? How long are they supposed to continue to tolerate it? Do these states really need to be under one federal government for all issues? Or are they strong enough on their own to form the Republic of "Pacifica," - perhaps even a partnership of some kind with British Columbia (though not shared nationality)? Could the same not happen in Atlantica?
Obviously, the governments in these states would have to go beyond the Constitution but could legitimately say that the MAGAs went first, leaving them no choice.
Will South Carolinians have their passport?
But even if the liberal state governments found it relatively easy to insist upon more self-government, perhaps independence with a joint defense agreement, the fact is that even the most liberal states are stuffed with super-infused MAGAs that will not want to leave their home, their land, and give up their country. They will have a point, just like the state has a point.
And therein lies the liberals' biggest problem. Lashing out as a state will be near impossible. If the states did declare some degree of independence, one would expect militias to form and use advanced asymmetric warfare to fight a 21st Century Civil War. Think Oklahoma City, but in Hollywood, Pikes Place Market, SoHo... Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard.
Bombs, with a demand to "unite" the country.
CONCLUSION
Count on it.
Other than the obvious slate of NFL games that Sunday afternoon, can you see past November 10th, 2024, with any certainty? Or - put a better way, can you see past November 10, 2024, with the type of certainty you used to take for granted? Will the winner of the election raise his or her hand on the Capitol steps on January 20th? Or will the winner of the post-election fight become “president”? Will we have a unified government, or two - one asserting power in exile? Is there any way to avoid a violent transition of power? How much does the election even mean to this next transition of power? (Even just Biden to Biden, it's still a transition).
If you believe you can see it accurately, it could be indicative of a problem.
It could mean that you know what is planned for November 10th, 2024, because those plans are being put in place right now, the SCOTUS case, the preparation for legislatures to move in, the readiness to reject the election entirely, and you know you'll come out ahead. That's a problem.
Or, it could mean that you're not paying close enough attention, and this might be the scariest thing you've read regarding the country.
Kickoff at 1:00 p.m. EST. Church at 8:00, 10:00, 11:30. Flights will be expensive as hell, but you'll find one that you feel is at least "acceptable." Teens will be on their phones all day.
Or - at least, we hope. Because there is one way that these norms are interrupted, and that would be that the violence has already begun, and it's far more serious than even we "seers" believed it could be. Serious enough that banks with those 30-year bets could get nervous enough that an economy could crash...
That damned fog is so thick we can see it forming now.
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Any little help out there, though unnecessary but helpful, Venmo @Jason-Miciak